Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on Chinese Rice Production and the World Rice Market
Working PaperAuthors
Rosamond Naylor, Scott Rozelle, Walter Falcon, David Battisti, Richard Palmer, Jikun Huang, Xiangzheng Deng
Published
February 2006
Interannual climate variability associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events has significant impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and rural incomes in many parts of the world. In Indonesia, El Nino events the warm phase of the ENSO cycle as measured by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Pacific Ocean typically lead to delayed onset of the monsoon, early season droughts, and delayed planting of the main rice crop. Similar effects have been observed in the Philippines and a few other regions of Southeast Asia. In the absence of trade or other policy interventions (which take time to implement if not anticipated), delays in rice production cause rice prices to rise prior to the main harvest, with disproportionate (negative) impacts on poor consumers. In the more northern latitudes, such as in China and other parts of East Asia, the opposite pattern is observed; El Nino events typically lead to higher-than-average rainfall in the winter and in some cases can cause flooding. ENSO forecasts are now recognized as an important tool for assessing food security, particularly for countries bordering the Pacific Ocean.
Topics: Food Security | China | East Asia & the Pacific | Indonesia | Philippines





